OpenCyber Academy
Bachelor's · Chapter 1 · English
Course code: OCA-114Chapter 01: OCA-114-C001

Chapter 1 — Mathematical reasoning

Open, free learning for anyone who wants to protect people and technology. No account is required to read this text or its worked answers.

Lesson map

Lesson 01 published. Map, example, EX001.

flowchart TD
  N0["Learning outcomes"]
  N1["1.1 Why an OT student needs proof habits"]
  N2["1.2 Units and dimensional checks"]
  N3["1.3 Implication, contrapositive and counter-example"]
  N4["Synthesis"]
  N0 --> N1 --> N2 --> N3 --> N4
  N4 --> EX["Worked example"]
  EX --> Q["Exercise EX001"]

Logical drawing

flowchart LR
  N0["Learning outcomes"]
  N1["1.1 Why an OT student needs proof habits"]
  N2["1.2 Units and dimensional checks"]
  N3["1.3 Implication, contrapositive and counter-example"]
  N4["Synthesis"]
  N0 --> N1 --> N2 --> N3 --> N4 --> Q["EX001"]
[Learning outcomes]
    |
    v
[1.1 Why an OT student needs proof habits]
    |
    v
[1.2 Units and dimensional checks]
    |
    v
[1.3 Implication, contrapositive and counter-example]
    |
    v
[Synthesis]
    |
    v
[Worked example] --> [Exercise EX001]

Learning outcomes

After this chapter you can (1) turn a plant sentence into a quantity with units; (2) estimate an order of magnitude before computing; (3) state the assumption that makes a calculation valid; and (4) recognise when a precise-looking number hides a guess. The running case is the synthetic Lakeside District Heating Plant (LDHP).

1.1 Why an OT student needs proof habits

Security claims about a heating plant are quantitative whether we admit it or not. "The network change is low risk" really means "the probability of losing supply-temperature control, multiplied by the harm to households, is below a threshold we accept." Mathematical reasoning makes the hidden terms visible. The habit is simple: write every quantity with its unit, name the assumption that links it to the next quantity, and check the result against a rough estimate made before any calculator is touched.

1.2 Units and dimensional checks

District heating mixes kilowatts, cubic metres per hour, degrees Celsius and seconds. Delivered heat power is approximately P = ρ · c · Q · ΔT, with water density ρ ≈ 1000 kg/m³ and specific heat c ≈ 4.19 kJ/(kg·K). If you write Q in m³/h you must divide by 3600 to obtain kg/s. A dimensional check catches that slip before it becomes a wrong boiler sizing argument in a risk register.

Maya's first memo needed exactly this check: a 5 K setpoint error is a ΔT, so the shortfall scales with flow, and a flow quoted in m³/h gives a number 3600 times too large unless it is converted to kg/s first.

1.3 Implication, contrapositive and counter-example

"If the SIS is independent, then a SCADA compromise cannot disable the trip." The contrapositive — "if a SCADA compromise can disable the trip, the SIS is not independent" — is logically equivalent and often easier to test. The converse is not equivalent: a trip that survives one test does not prove independence. One documented counter-example, such as a shared engineering workstation that can download to both controllers, refutes a universal claim.

At LDHP the counter-example to look for is EWS-1: if one engineering workstation can download logic to both PLC-H and SIS-H, the claim that SIS-H is independent of a control-zone compromise is false, however many trip tests SIS-H has passed.

Worked example (synthetic LDHP)

LDHP pumps Q = 180 m³/h with ΔT = 30 K. Estimate first: 0.05 m³/s × 1000 kg/m³ × 4.19 kJ/(kg·K) × 30 K ≈ 6,300 kW. Exact: 180/3600 = 0.05 m³/s, so P = 50 kg/s × 4.19 × 30 = 6,285 kW ≈ 6.3 MW. If an attacker could only change the supply setpoint by 5 K, ΔT falls to 25 K and the delivered heat drops to 5,237.5 kW, a 1,047.5 kW shortfall. That shortfall, not the packet, is the consequence a risk owner can weigh.

Synthetic case — Lakeside District Heating Plant. Student Maya Chen joins LDHP's engineering office. Her first memo must express the heat shortfall caused by a 5 K setpoint error in kilowatts, with every assumption listed.

Errors and limits

The heat formula ignores pipe losses and the fact that density and heat capacity drift with temperature. A two-significant-figure answer is honest; six digits imply knowledge you do not have.

Exercises

Synthesis

Quantities with units, assumptions said aloud and counter-examples sought: these three habits turn a security opinion about a plant into an argument someone can check.

Continue studying — chapter 01 of 40

← Course home · Course chapter index · Chapter 02 (draft) →

Worked answers

EX001. 150/3600 = 0.04167 m³/s → 41.67 kg/s; P = 41.67 × 4.19 × 30 ≈ 5,237.5 kW (about 5.2 MW), roughly 1 MW below the 180 m³/h case.

EX002. "If the meter gateway can write to PLC-H, then it has a route to the control zone." It is testable because finding any successful write path forces a search for the route, and finding none supports (but does not prove) the original claim.

EX003. 6.3 MW × 24 h ≈ 151 MWh per day, so "about 150 MWh/day"; the estimate assumes constant load, which a winter-night profile would violate.